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Calibrate a Snowmelt Runoff Model

Jason -

This model demonstrates the use of GoldSim's optimization feature to calibrate a snowmelt model by automatically adjusting parameters to achieve correlation between historic streamflow record and streamflow calculated in the model. The historic record used to drive the snowmelt model includes temperature and precipitation. Calibration accuracy is measured using an R2 factor. Five model parameters are used as optimization variables and the objective function is to maximize the R^2 factor, which is documented in the model. An R^2 value of 1.0 indicates perfect calibration.

The optimization parameters include recession constants (x, y), and the degree-day factor (a).

The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) is known to provide support for reservoir operators and water supply managers in anticipating and acting on changes in snowmelt runoff. WinSRM can be used for predicting snowmelt runoff which can then be incorporated into a reservoir model to estimate fill targets for the early summer months and often provides decision makers with increased knowledge for their annual strategic planning. To further understand their risks, modelers can use model results from SRM and statistically analyze them to quantify risks probabilistically. Refer to the Snowmelt-Runoff Model User's Manual for more information about the SRM model.

Experience Level:

Advanced

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Tags:

  • sensitivity
  • calibration
  • optimization
  • snowmelt
  • runoff
  • hydrology
  • variables
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