A Generic Performance Assessment Model for a Radioactive Waste Disposal Site

This is an example of a probabilistic performance assessment (PA) model. Developed by Neptune and Company, this generic PA model demonstrates the development and utility of a probabilistic PA, which provides a great deal more information than a traditional deterministic PA. Probabilistic model results better reflect the state of knowledge about a radioactive waste disposal site and its behavior than is possible with a deterministic model. This provides decision makers and stakeholders a better understanding of potential effects of radioactive waste disposal.

This example model assumes low-level radioactive waste is buried beneath a homogenous cover. Contaminants can move downward to a groundwater aquifer and upward via plant uptake and animal burrowing. In arid and semi-arid climates, biotic transport can be a dominant transport pathway, along with air diffusion of gases, such as radon. This model assumes, sometime in the future, someone might build a home on top of the waste, breathe in gases or particles in the air, drink water from the well, and work in a garden, growing food they eat, all with potential contamination.

The generic PA model can aid communication about radioactive waste disposal to the general public. As well, the generic PA model can be adapted to evaluate a simple disposal site.