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Polya Urn Problem

Ryan Roper -

This simple model simulates the classic Polya urn problem in which stones, either black or white, are randomly selected (with replacement) from a pot. The user begins with two stones, one of each color. Each time a stone of a given color is selected, the stone is replaced and another stone of the same color is added to the pot. Therefore, the odds of adding a stone of a given color is always equal to the proportion of that color currently in the pot.

Experience Level:

Novice

Download the Model File:

Tags:

  • system dynamics
  • feedback
  • path dependence
  • lock in
  • polya
  • random
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