I am trying to use Bayesian updating to calibrate a hydrologic model probabilistically. To do so, I followed one of the general examples (./General Examples/Stochastic/BayesianUpdating.gsm) in the model directory. I've used a uniform PDF as the prior distribution of my calibration parameter and want to use observed flow to derive the posterior distribution. However, I am confused with the uncertainty reduction factor. Instead of that, I want to use some goodness-of-fit measure/likelihood function such as average relative interval length (ARIL) to adjust the posterior PDF. Can we use something like that or somehow relate the uncertainty reduction factor to some goodness-of-fit measure?
I appreciate you helping me out with it.