May - Applications in Probabilistic Simulation

This webinar was presented by Jason Lillywhite in May 2011. Below is a brief summary of the presentation.

This webinar introduced Monte Carlo simulation in GoldSim. The first part of this webinar introduced users to the fundamental concept of the methodology, followed by a simple example showing how Monte Carlo is applied in GoldSim. The following basic concepts were discussed in this webinar:

• Probability distributions
• Correlation
• Importance sampling
• Choosing an appropriate probability distribution
• Quantifying uncertainty for input to your models GoldSim elements that incorporate uncertainty (stochastic, timed event, time series, history generator, spreadsheet, timed event, random choice, event delay)

Following this introduction, a more in-depth example demonstrating probabilistic simulation of rainfall and runoff from a basin was demonstrated. This example uses WGEN (Markov chain weather generator) and HSPF (calculating runoff in a pervious drainage basin).