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Applications in Probabilistic Simulation

Jason -

This webinar was presented by Jason Lillywhite in May 2011. Below is a brief summary of the presentation.

This webinar introduced Monte Carlo simulation in GoldSim. The first part of this webinar introduced users to the fundamental concept of the methodology, followed by a simple example showing how Monte Carlo is applied in GoldSim. The following basic concepts were discussed in this webinar:

  • Probability distributions
  • Correlation
  • Importance sampling
  • Choosing an appropriate probability distribution
  • Quantifying uncertainty for input to your models GoldSim elements that incorporate uncertainty (stochastic, timed event, time series, history generator, spreadsheet, timed event, random choice, event delay)

Following this introduction, a more in-depth example demonstrating probabilistic simulation of rainfall and runoff from a basin was demonstrated. This example uses WGEN (Markov chain weather generator) and HSPF (calculating runoff in a pervious drainage basin).


  • monte carlo
  • probabilistic
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